According to the monitoring results of mid-color aluminum smelting industry prosperity index, in March 2019, the prosperity index of mid-color aluminum smelting industry was 31.4, which generally continued the trend of the previous month and kept running in the "cold" range.The antecedent composite index was 65.7, which continued to decline slightly.In recent 13 months, the prosperity index of mid-color aluminum smelting industry is shown in table 1.In March 2019, the production of aluminum smelting industry was stable on the whole, aluminum consumption performance was better than expected, social inventory of aluminum decreased, supply pressure eased, and aluminum price adjusted.However, considering that the production capacity of off-peak heating season resumes gradually, there has been no substantial improvement in demand, and the sino-us trade agreement has not been reached, and the pressure of industry benefit turning from deficit to profit remains.

The sentiment index extended last month's level

According to the monthly prosperity index of mid-color aluminum smelting industry, in March 2019, the prosperity index was 31.4, which was the same as that in February, indicating that the industry is still in the adjustment stage due to internal and external troubles and insufficient recovery power.

By medium aluminium smelting industry boom lamp (see table 2), in March 2019, in the aluminum smelting industry in 10 indicators of sentiment, the LME settlement price, M2, aluminium smelting total amount of investment, commercial housing sales area, electrolytic aluminium production, alumina production, advocate business wu income and aluminum exports eight indexes such as continue to be in a "normal" range;Power generation and total profit and other two indicators in the "cold" range.

Leading composite index continued to fall slightly

Since 2019, the composite index of medium color aluminum smelting industry has continued to decline, but the decline is limited. In march, it dropped 0.9 points to 65.7 compared with the previous month

Among the five indicators that make up the leading composite index, the year-on-year change of 2 is down 3 liters, among which the settlement price of LME aluminum and the sales area of commercial housing are down 11.4% and 1.6% respectively.Month-on-month changes showed 2 down 3 liters, among which the settlement price of LME aluminum and electricity generation declined 1.2% and 0.1% respectively.

Industry operation characteristics and situation analysis

In March 2019, affected by domestic and foreign policy environment such as tax reduction and fee reduction signals released by the two sessions of the Chinese people's political consultative conference and the positive progress of china-us trade negotiations, the aluminum industry operated smoothly on the whole. The specific performance is as follows:

First, supply pressures have eased.In March 2019, the operation capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased nationwide, which was mainly attributed to the rapid decline of aluminum price center since the beginning of the year. The cumulative loss of the industry in the first two months exceeded 1.3 billion yuan, and some production lines were suspended.Meanwhile, with the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity from henan to sichuan, the original production line was withdrawn.In addition, the heating season peak production capacity has not been fully restored.It is preliminarily estimated that by the end of March 2019, the capacity of electrolytic aluminum in operation is about 36.2 million tons, and the output of electrolytic aluminum in March is 2.88 million tons, up 3.4% year-on-year.

Second, aluminum consumption is better than expected.Although the 2019 Spring Festival holiday is longer than last year's holiday for aluminum processing enterprises, the country's aluminum production in the first two months showed a 4% increase, and the social inventory of aluminum fell by 70,000 tons in March.In terms of domestic consumption, although the current data performance of the main downstream areas is still relatively low, but the policy hedging effect is gradually emerging.In the first three months, the monthly output of automobiles decreased by 12.5%, 17.4% and 2.7%, respectively.In the first three months of this year, the area of completed housing decreased by 10.8%, and the area of newly started housing increased by 11.9%.In terms of export trade, although there are frequent trade frictions, the export of aluminum material still shows a rapid growth since this year.In the first three months, China exported 1.44 million tons of unforged aluminum and aluminum products, up 13.6 percent year-on-year.Of that, 550,000 tons were exported in March, a record high for the year.Considering the complex and changeable trade environment, the aluminum export situation is still severe.

Third, domestic aluminum prices rose slightly.In March 2019, domestic and foreign aluminum prices showed a small rise month-on-month.Among them, LME spot and march futures prices were $1,872 and $1,895 per ton respectively, up 0.7% and 0.5% respectively year-on-year.Shanghai aluminum spot and march futures prices were 13,686 yuan/ton and 13,695 yuan/ton respectively, up 1.5% and 1.1% year on year respectively.In march, the profits of electrolytic aluminum enterprises rebounded and the losses narrowed.Domestic alumina prices continue to fall, the spot price in March month-on-month down 2.5% to about 2700 yuan/ton, the industry is still difficult to operate.

To sum up, based on the domestic and foreign economic and trade environment changes and policy adjustment expectations, it is preliminarily estimated that the operation of aluminum smelting industry in April 2019 will be stable with a slight increase, operating along the "cold" range.